{
  "visual_id": "C03-joint-clocks",
  "title": "Measured chronology in a joint history likelihood",
  "classification": "conditional_numerical_experiment",
  "run_ids": [
    "20260929T030548291050Z-E20-joint"
  ],
  "claim_ids": [
    "C07",
    "C14"
  ],
  "input_files": [
    {
      "path": "runs/20260929T030548291050Z-E20-joint/conditional-history-profiles.csv",
      "sha256": "a933f88acec5c4943fd4b28e9b70fc941de2cc8b42614f78a2e3a34902b6dc60"
    },
    {
      "path": "runs/20260929T030548291050Z-E20-joint/laboratory-calibration-profiles.csv",
      "sha256": "14d79c4db88f23a62b9adfd6b3c8af15e122593b6cf4a2b8949358cd270cae19"
    },
    {
      "path": "runs/20260929T030548291050Z-E20-joint/results.json",
      "sha256": "2abcff52c23bb2bc262fcbb81d69052effb9f5c4d3986fbe5125a77f07dc9c64"
    }
  ],
  "configurations": {
    "E20-joint": {
      "rho_scenarios": [
        -0.8,
        0.0,
        0.8
      ],
      "common_W_sigma_ppm": [
        0.0,
        3.0
      ],
      "histories_Gyr": [
        [
          2.0,
          0.1
        ],
        [
          2.0,
          1.0
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        [
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          0.1
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      "amplitude_grids": {
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        "1.0": [
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        ]
      },
      "exchange_delay_Myr_scenarios": [
        0.0,
        10.0
      ],
      "bootstrap_per_history": 120,
      "seed": 204567,
      "laboratory_half_life_Gyr": 42.3,
      "laboratory_1sigma_Gyr": 0.663265306122449,
      "Pb_apparent_age_Gyr": 4.5673,
      "Pb_age_1sigma_Gyr": 8e-05,
      "Pb_age_source": "https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1226919",
      "laboratory_alternatives": [
        {
          "name": "Lindner-1989",
          "half_life_Gyr": 42.3,
          "sigma_Gyr": 0.663265306122449
        },
        {
          "name": "Galeazzi-2001",
          "half_life_Gyr": 41.2,
          "sigma_Gyr": 1.118033988749895,
          "source": "https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevC.63.014302"
        },
        {
          "name": "Arnaboldi-2003",
          "half_life_Gyr": 43.2,
          "sigma_Gyr": 0.223606797749979,
          "source": "https://arxiv.org/abs/hep-ex/0302006"
        }
      ],
      "lab_source": "https://doi.org/10.1016/0016-7037(89)90241-X"
    }
  },
  "assumptions": {
    "E20-joint": [
      "Published corrected W measurements are used once (186/183 normalization); the alternative normalization and published fitted ages are not independent data.",
      "The Pb/Pb anchor is a compressed published age, not raw Pb isotope data. Its two uranium clocks respond to alpha and its inferred actual age is recalculated jointly.",
      "Re laboratory calibration is the historical direct 1989 measurement, not a new current metrology evaluation. Its reported 95% error is converted to one sigma.",
      "Two later direct calorimetric half-lives are alternative calibrations, not multiplied as independent consensus data. Their stated statistical and systematic errors are treated as independent one-sigma Gaussian terms for this sensitivity test.",
      "Hf/W precursor and shared reference assumptions are explicit. Unknown Re covariance and common W correction errors remain sensitivity scenarios.",
      "Only late excursions outside extinct-Hf formation are considered. Histories overlapping the first 50 Myr after CAIs require a heavy-nucleus Hf response and are rejected.",
      "A 10 Myr separation between W segregation and Re closure is an exchange-history alternative, not a measured exchange correction.",
      "Parametric recovery trials validate a stated data/noise model; they cannot measure omitted laboratory covariance or calibrate a model-independent empirical bound."
    ]
  },
  "plotted_values": {
    "path": "C03-joint-clocks-data.json",
    "sha256": "2b41dc4003c7cb317f44badd5e0a9bbb0088ad2f4af46b9c356972f149b8f3d6"
  },
  "caption": "Real Re/Os and corrected W observations are combined with an affected compressed Pb/Pb anchor. The left two panels use the historical Lindner direct half-life. The right panel substitutes the later Galeazzi and Arnaboldi measurements, treating their quoted statistical/systematic errors as independent Gaussian terms. These alternatives are not combined into a consensus. Unknown x/y correlation, additional common W error and W-to-Re closure delay are zero in this display; the full results scan alternatives. A calibration-dependent displacement is not a detection of changing constants.",
  "alt_text": "The short excursion has a wider conditional interval. Alternative direct half-life calibrations move the apparent excursion and change whether zero lies in its interval.",
  "generator": "src/metastable/experiment_report.py",
  "generator_sha256": "00ba19fa7e51a7b74e16e13e473754e9c41eedcadda657586c8f5ceb1b90100f",
  "command": "python run.py full experiment-report",
  "output_sha256": {
    "svg": "e1f099db7d93e49639136f8ee41cc8105fa51c928e67e700bbfc25375d0b7764",
    "png": "dd399167f703336eecbfdad6209e5ebb28d4c70adc3d444a80368208bc936428"
  }
}