# Conditioning selects histories

Each dot is one saved random realization, not an invented civilization or a map cell. Selection changes the statistical sample. Past-light-cone mode evaluates the target at emission and applies the same duration requirement. These are opportunity diagnostics without a measured emergence law.

The upper graph identifies included realizations. The lower graph compares their nearby phase statistics with the unconditioned ensemble, including a past-light-cone view.

## All histories · current time

Three-dimensional histories. The new-phase duration requirement is 0.1 simulation time; the old-phase selection requires no conversion. Front speed 0.4c is a diagnostic choice.

First: 12 saved realizations inspected; 12 meet this observer selection. No event is changed by selection. Seed 80808.

Last: 120 saved realizations inspected; 120 meet this observer selection. No event is changed by selection. Seed 80808.

## New-phase observer · current time

Three-dimensional histories. The new-phase duration requirement is 0.1 simulation time; the old-phase selection requires no conversion. Front speed 0.4c is a diagnostic choice.

First: 12 saved realizations inspected; 8 meet this observer selection. No event is changed by selection. Seed 80808.

Last: 120 saved realizations inspected; 80 meet this observer selection. No event is changed by selection. Seed 80808.

## New-phase observer · past light cone

Three-dimensional histories. The new-phase duration requirement is 0.1 simulation time; the old-phase selection requires no conversion. Front speed 0.4c is a diagnostic choice.

First: 12 saved realizations inspected; 8 meet this observer selection. No event is changed by selection. Seed 80808.

Last: 120 saved realizations inspected; 80 meet this observer selection. No event is changed by selection. Seed 80808.

## Old-phase observer · current time

Three-dimensional histories. The new-phase duration requirement is 0.1 simulation time; the old-phase selection requires no conversion. Front speed 0.4c is a diagnostic choice.

First: 12 saved realizations inspected; 3 meet this observer selection. No event is changed by selection. Seed 80808.

Last: 120 saved realizations inspected; 21 meet this observer selection. No event is changed by selection. Seed 80808.